Hiring A Pollster: Four Keys

by Bill Hamilton

Reprinted from Campaigns & Elections, August, 1995

While there is no guaranteed right way to hire a pollster, there are key criteria which must be considered. Knowing these criteria can help campaigns avoid critical errors in the selection process and greatly increase the probability of victory.

Recommendation number one: hire your pollster early. Whether you plan to do an early poll or not, you need to build a relationship with your pollster. Recommendation number two is to not hire your pollster until after you have taken an inventory of your own assets and liabilities.

Here are the four criteria to selecting an appropriate pollster:

Personal chemistry between the pollster and the candidate, as well as other campaign professionals.

Personal chemistry between the candidate and pollster may be the most critical dimension. In preparation for this article, we conducted an informal survey of veteran (as well as younger) consultants. Not surprisingly, the element of trust was most often mentioned when these consultants described past campaigns in which the pollster had been most effective. The candidate's belief in the pollster's numbers (including disappointing numbers), acceptance of advice, and reliance on the pollster as a full member of the strategy team not only enhances the value of the advice, it keeps a lid on bickering and time consuming arguments.

The pollster and crucial campaign members - the manager, press chief, and other consultants - must be able to work together easily. Understanding of each other's role in the campaign fosters better communication and efficiency; differences in philosophy or approach will generate synergistic ideas rather than fights or gridlock. The bottomline: you're not looking for a "lovefest," but you do need mutual respect, compatibility, and an easy-going personal relationship.

Relevant experience in similar competitive races in the same political culture.

All pollsters have at least some experience in candidate campaigns. The key is, how relevant is that experience to your particular campaign? Voters react differently to elections; varying resources require different approaches.

The pollster should have experience in the electoral geography in which you are running. It would be helpful - but not essential - if the pollster knows the political players and had a sense of your constituents.

Find out about races comparable to your own that the pollster has handled. Then get references for those similar races, including at least one loser, and determine whether the pollster's numbers were right, whether the strategy was on target, and if the degree of assistance the pollster gave to the campaign made a difference.

Availability to the campaign; which member of the firm will you work with, and what are their time commitments to you.

Tensions between pollsters and campaigns typically occur when the pollster is simply not available. This sometimes happens when the polling firm is not organized efficiently and loses control of various deadlines. It can also happen when the personal chemistry has turned sour and the pollster is concentrating on other, more interesting races. Or it could be that the race was destined, from the initial sales pitch, to be shunted off to a junior analyst. Most often, however, access to the pollster becomes a problem when the firm has taken on too many clients.

While a pollster client shouldn't expect full-time attention from the firm's top pollster, you should expect the pollster's firm to use a two-person team on your race. This allows you constant access (through a junior associate) to the firm and allows the key professional the time to stay current with the campaign.

Analytical style of the pollster in terms of innovative and creative methodology and ability to translate numbers into real world communication strategies.

Election campaigns go through significant changes every two to three cycles. Pollsters should fully understand how to translate dry poll numbers into insightful strategic decisions. They should adapt their techniques to meet the needs of a changing political environment. If their recommended program is simply benchmark, trend, and tracking polls, probe further for research techniques which specifically relate to your campaign.

Be sure to question the pollster's references about this element and turn to your own staff and consultant friends for advice. Many of these people will have experience with the pollsters under consideration, and will know which ones have a reputation as either a "cut and paste jockey" or one who is willing to develop new research methodology to fit each type of campaign.