Memorandum - Key Findings in a Florida Statewide Survey

This memo is based on a survey of 700 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2008 general election in Florida, statewide. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing October 10-15, 2008. The study was conducted for public release and not produced for any campaign or election committee. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±3.7 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.

• Voters are very negative about the direction of the county. Three-out-of-four voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction (13% right direction – 75% wrong direction – 5% mixed). Across the board, voters of all demographic subgroups are negative about the direction of the country.
• Voters are more negative than positive on the direction of Florida (37% right direction – 45% wrong direction – 6% mixed). There is a clear partisan divide regarding opinions on the direction of the state. Democrats are negative about the direction of the state (26% right direction – 57% wrong direction – 6% mixed). Republicans are positive about the direction of the state (50% right direction – 33% wrong direction – 7% mixed).
• A majority of Florida voters are concerned about the country’s economic uncertainty over moral decline or national security. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Florida voters are concerned about economic uncertainty, while only 17% are concerned about moral decline and 13% are concerned about national security. One-third (34%) of voters in the state say they live paycheck-to-paycheck.
• Barack Obama leads John McCain in the vote preference for President by +4 percentage points (47% Obama – 43% McCain – 3% other – 7% undecided). Obama holds a strong lead in the Miami media market (58% Obama – 32% McCain – 0% other – 10% undecided). McCain holds a +11 percentage point lead in the Panhandle/Northeast region of the state (39% Obama – 50% McCain – 6% other – 7% undecided).
• John McCain is underperforming in the Panhandle/Northeast region. In 2000 George W. Bush led Al Gore in the Panhandle/Northeast by 58% to 39%. In 2004, George W. Bush led John Kerry by 61% to 38%. McCain’s +11 percentage point margin in this region is significantly lower than the margin needed for a Republican candidate to win the state.
• Voters give Charlie Crist a very positive job rating as governor (70% positive – 25% negative). However, only 13% of voters rate his performance as “excellent”. Crist is rated positively by all voters, regardless of party registration. Democrats rate the Governor 62% positive – 33% negative, Republicans are 80% positive – 16% negative, and Independents are 64% positive – 26% negative.
• A majority of voters would vote to re-elect Charlie Crist as governor if the 2010 election were held today. Crist receives 52% of the vote, while a generic Democratic candidate garners 34% of the vote.
• Mel Martinez appears to be struggling against a generic Democratic candidate in a re-elect vote preference for U.S. Senate. Just 44% say they would vote to re-elect Senator Martinez, while 40% say they would support a Democratic candidate.
• Fifty percent (50%) of voters in Florida feel the federal government’s plan to help struggling financial markets with $700 billion in assistance is necessary, while 38% feel it is unnecessary.