Hamilton Campaigns
New Poll Shows Concern for the Economy Hurting John McCain in Florida
FERNANDINA BEACH, FL – A new poll in Florida shows that the economic downturn is hurting John McCain’s chance to win the state and thus the presidency.
The poll shows that among voters concerned about the economy, John McCain trails Barack Obama by 38 percentage points. A majority of voters in Florida are concerned about the country’s economic uncertainty rather than moral decline or national security.
Overall, Barack Obama leads John McCain in the presidential race by only +4 percentage points (47% Obama – 43% McCain - 3% other - 7% undecided). Obama has a +25 percentage point lead in the Miami media market, the region of the state where voters are the most concerned about economic uncertainty. Conversely, in the Panhandle and Northeast Florida, where voters show the lowest level of concern about the economy, John McCain holds a +11 percentage point lead in the race for president. Interestingly, in North Florida, 6% of voters choose a third party candidate, preventing John McCain from maximizing his support in this region.
The survey was conducted among 700 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November 2008 general election in Florida, statewide. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing October 10-15, 2008. The study was conducted for public release and not produced for any campaign or election committee. The margin of error for a sample of this size is ±3.7 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.
"Voters concerned about the economy are lost to McCain and without increased support in the Panhandle, there’s no way for McCain to win Florida. And without Florida, there is no realistic scenario for McCain to win the presidency," said David Beattie, president of Hamilton Campaigns.
The survey, aimed at gauging voters’ attitudes on a range of topics, also found that one-half of voters believe the $700 billion dollar stimulus package was necessary because it stabilizes the economy, protects retirement benefits, and makes sure small businesses and homeowners can get loans, while also punishing executives who broke the law. Only 38% say it was not necessary because it is a blank check for Wall Street, with no guarantees it will work, and does nothing to help homeowners or crack down on the practices that caused these problems.
Looking ahead to the 2010 elections, U.S. Senator Mel Martinez appears to be facing an uphill battle for re-election, with only 44% of voters saying they will vote to re-elect the Republican Senator and 40% supporting a generic Democratic candidate, with 16% undecided. Governor Charlie Crist maintains a stronger (but by no means safe) lead in a bid for re-election, receiving 52% of the vote over 34% for a generic Democratic candidate, with 14% undecided.
"The trend of close elections between well-funded candidates looks to continue in 2010, with real competition for the U.S. Senate seat and with a governor who is personally popular, but who barely receives a majority of the vote against an unnamed candidate," said Beattie.
Hamilton Campaigns is a national research and consulting firm with offices in Florida and Washington D.C. Founded in Orlando in 1964, Hamilton Campaigns has polled in every Florida statewide election, accurately predicting the outcome of elections in the state for the past four decades.